Myth of Sports Betting: To Win, You Should Bet the Better Team
To Win, You Should Ditch the Better Team
Statistically, the bettor will bet favorites. That’s a big mistake, and here’s why.
To begin with, the average bettor tends to overstate the comparative strength of the league’s better teams and players. What pro handicappers know is that there is actually tremendous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player at a position and the worst.
When a team of marginally worse players is much more inspired than a team of slightly superior gamers an absolutely upset is possible. Most certainly, it is potential for the”inferior” group to cover the point spread.
Second, the point spread will nullify any obvious scrimmage border (skill or power advantage) a group has over its competitor. From the 1999 and 2000 seasons, for example, there were 167 matches where the point spread was seven points or more (games in which one team’s advantage over the following was perceived to become large ). Though the underdog won just 36 of those games outright (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of those games (while linking it six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.
Third, by gambling an underdog, you have an important element of sport plan on your side. NFL teams do their best to win a match. Accordingly, in the past few minutes of a match, a team that’s leading seldom takes much danger to score more points. Instead, it targets hanging on to its lead. The team that is losing, on the other hand, usually attempts to score till the bitter end. When a bettor has taken a favorite that is beforehand but not covering five minutes or less to proceed, that bettor is in trouble.
In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I’ve yet to come across a long-term winning bettor who doesn’t bet largely underdogs.